Lithium battery market
The future development of lithium battery market will be characterized by diversification, technology-driven and global layout, with the following main directions:
1. New energy vehicle market continues to grow
In 2025, the global new energy vehicle penetration rate will continue to increase, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate is expected to exceed 45%, Europe's electric vehicle sales account for more than 35%, and the US power battery demand will increase by 40% year-on-year.
Power battery demand is strong, and global lithium battery shipments are expected to reach 2344GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 147.2%.
2. Energy storage market becomes a new growth point
The global wind and solar storage ratio has increased to 25%+, and the new energy storage capacity is expected to be 220-250GWh in 2025, with battery demand exceeding 400GWh.
Industrial and commercial energy storage has entered the parity era (LCOS has dropped to below 0.6 yuan/Wh), and the average installed capacity per household in the European and American household storage market has reached 15kWh.
3. Breakthroughs in solid-state battery and new material technology
The first year of commercialization of all-solid-state batteries has begun. CATL, Toyota and other companies will achieve small-scale installation in 2025 (energy density exceeds 400Wh/kg).
The penetration rate of silicon-based negative electrodes has exceeded 15%, the market share of lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) has exceeded 20%, and sodium-ion batteries account for more than 10% in the energy storage field.
4. Acceleration of global layout
Chinese lithium battery companies are accelerating their overseas expansion. It is expected that the overseas new production capacity will reach 190GWh in 2027, and the equipment market size will reach 59 billion yuan.
European and American policies promote localized supply chains. For example, the US IRA Act requires that the proportion of local procurement of key minerals reach 80%.
5. Recycling and circular economy
In 2025, China's lithium battery recycling rate target exceeds 30%, and companies such as GEM and Huayou Cobalt have established a closed-loop system of "recycling-material recycling-battery remanufacturing".
In the future, the lithium battery industry will focus on high energy density, low cost, fast charging technology and global competition, and technology-leading companies will further consolidate their market position.
